Occupancy Forecast

Guest nights on the books for the nights of July 1 to 7 are +6% to July 1 to 7, 2025 and -10.8% to July 1 to 7, 2024. The graph below compares the numerical date YOY and not the day of the week.

Guest nights on the books

2024     2025     2026
July 1      928       776        774
July 2     987        896       1,062
July 3     1,268     1,123     1,376
July 4     1,378     1,182     1,313
July 5     1,294     983       781
July 6     990       689       703
July 7     679        686       705

A different graph below compares three years of Wednesday July 1 to Tuesday July 2 (July 1 to 7, 2026) guest nights on the books. Guest nights on the books in this comparison indicate 2026 guest nights are +5.2% to 2025 and -6.8% to 2024.

Guest nights on the books Wednesday to Tuesday
2024    2025     2026
July 1     1,268     896      774
July 2    1,378     1,123     1,062
July 3    1,294     1,182     1,376
July 4    990        983       1,313
July 5    679         689      781
July 6    709         686      703
July 7    884         821      705

Using the same dates above (Wednesday to Tuesday), Summit County guest nights on the books are +6.6% to 2025 and -3% to 2024. The patterns for arrival are virtually identical except for July 7, when Summit County has more on the books this year than the previous 2 years.

Today’s Key Data reports include 49 properties and 3,077 units, of which 2,716 units are located inside Breckenridge town limits. As of December 2025, Breckenridge had 4,132 licensed units in town. The data is based on business levels on Key data as of June 28, 2026.

June 21 Report

Breckenridge Summer Season (May 1 to Oct 31) guest nights on the books (OTB) indicate we are pacing 0.5% above the 2025 summer season (+345 guest nights). Currently, Breckenridge has approximately 46% of last summer’s actual guest nights on the books.

A monthly snapshot of guest nights on the books:

2026 Variance to 2025           % of 2025 Actual Nights OTB

May        -5.4% YOY                     95%

Jun        -1.6% YOY                     95% (June 2025 had CML Group)

Jul        +14% YOY                      80%

Aug       +3% YOY                      45%

Sep          +3% YOY                     29%

Oct          +40% YOY                    14%

June 2026 has approximately 95% of last year’s actual nights on the books and is currently pacing -1.6% to last year. June has experienced strong pickup since being down 12% YOY on May 17.

July 2026 has 13.9% more guest nights on the books than July 2025. July has approximately 80% of 2025 actual guest nights on the books. July 2026 expected guest nights on the books to match 2025 actual guest nights by July 10, 2026.

The July 4th Holiday is represented on the graph below (July 1 to July 7). July 1 to 7, 2026 has 6.9% more guest nights on the books than in 2025. Approximately 83% of last year’s actual guest nights are on the books. Please note: When looking at the graph, July 4, 2026 is Saturday (blue), July 4, 2025 is Friday (red) and July 4, 2024 is Thursday.

August 1 – 31 is represented on the graph below. August has approximately 45% of 2025 actual guest nights on the books. Guest nights on the books are +3% year over year (YOY).

The graph below compares 2026 school breaks with 2025. The rusty red line is 2026 schools, and the blue line is 2025 schools (college and public combined). Notice how August 2026 has more schools on break longer than in August 2025. This should help boost August guest night numbers in 2026. Also, note how Labor Day is one week later in 2026. This will hurt late August guest night comparisons and boost early September comparisons.

The fill of guest nights for September has been a rollercoaster compared to the timing of bookings for September 2025. Currently, September has 3% more guest nights on the books compared to September 2025. September has approximately 30% of last year’s actual guest nights on the books.

Oktoberfest 2026 is September 25, 26, & 27. This is two weeks later than the past few years. The graph below looks at guest nights on the books for the past three Oktoberfest weekends. Saturday night is on par with history, Thursday and Friday nights need to pace to pick up.

The graph below shows the number of reservations made in June 2026 for arrival in June 2026 to October 31, 2026.

Key Data properties are having to book more reservations in summer 2026 to reach the same revenue and night numbers booked last year. So far in June 2026, Key Data properties have booked 15% more reservations than last year to gain 8% more revenue than last year. Summer season revenue is +1% YOY (+$197K) on 5% more guest nights than last year (+3,815 nights). The average daily rate per room (ADR) is -$12 less than last year (-4% YOY). The average length of stay is now 3.8 nights, vs. 3.9 nights in 2025.

Owner nights on the books are pacing 8% above summer 2025 (+4,716 owner nights). Given the YOY increase in guest nights and the YOY increase in owner nights, summer 2026 business levels will outpace summer 2025. Summit County Key Data properties have 7,828 more guest nights on the books than last year (+6% YOY). Summit County owner nights are also up 4.5% YOY. Expect more day visitation from throughout Summit County lodging.

Today’s Key Data reports include 50 properties and 3,081 units, of which 2,717 units are located inside Breckenridge town limits. As of December 2025, Breckenridge had 4,132 licensed units in town. The data is based on business levels on Key data as of June 21, 2026.