Occupancy Forecast

July 4th in Breckenridge was a success. During the June 28 to July 11, 2024 Visitor Intercept survey interviews, the Net Promoter scores for “likelihood to recommend” were 86.5. The chart below looks at Guest nights on the books for July 1 to Sept 8, 2024. The Blue line is 2024 on the books as of July 14, 2024. The red line is 2023 on the books as of July 14, 2023 and the yellow line is 2023 actual guest nights.

For July 1 to Sept 8, 2024; guest nights on the books are -9% year over year (YOY). Last summer, 71% of 2023 “actual” guest nights were on the books. This year Breckenridge has 65% of 2023 actual guest nights on the books. Pure occupancy ((guest nights + owner nights)/Available nights) is -4% YOY.

Guest nights on the books July 20 & 21 are within 5 points of last year. July 22 to 26 will be substantially slower than the same week one year ago. Guest nights on the books are down as much as 25% during this 5-night span. The July 26 to 28 weekend is within 3 to 8 points of last year. This summer “last minute” booking volumes have not been keeping pace with 2023 numbers.

August has been a bright spot of the summer. Last week, August guest nights booked did not keep up with the pace set last year. Look at August 3 to August 26. With the exception of a couple of nights early in the month, guest nights on the books exceed last year every night. August 19 to 25 is benefitting from 10% more schools on break this year vs. last year. Labor Day weekend is pacing above last year.

Speaking of Labor Day weekend, the chart below compares Aug. 30, 2024 to Oct. 31, 2024.

Guest nights on the books for Labor Day weekend are +22% to last year. Guest nights on the books for Oktoberfest weekend, September 12 – 15, are +1% to last year. Heads up Breckenridge, Tokens will not be accepted for beer at Oktoberfest. If you have tokens, keep them, they will be collector items. The nights of September 8, 9 & 10 and September 25, 26 & 27 stand out as we see 35% to 50% deficits in Guest Nights on the books.

Summer Season Guest Nights on the books are now -15% to Summer Season 2023.

• June guest nights on the books were -17.5% to last
• July guest nights on the books are -17.5% to last year, lost ½ point in two weeks
• August guest nights on the books are -0.5% to last year, lost 6 points in four weeks
• September guest nights on the books are -22% to last year, lost 5 points in two

A Key Data Summer season Market Snapshot report aggregating 10 western mountain destinations (Aspen, Snowmass, Winter Park, Park City, Steamboat, Telluride and Mountain Village, Beaver Creek, Whistler, North Lake Tahoe, and Vail) gives a snapshot of industry performance. Below we compare a variety of Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s) vs. Breckenridge.

A quick look at the 2024-25 winter season has Guest nights on the books pacing -18% to the previous season with a $23/+4% increase in the average daily rate (ADR). Guest nights on the books for December are -12% YOY. Guest nights on the books for January and February are down 22% to 26% YOY. More consumers are remaining on the sidelines this year vs. last year.

The July 14, 2024 Key Data reports include 48 properties and 3,294 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.