Occupancy Forecast

Breckenridge summer season guest nights on the books (OTB) indicate Breckenridge is pacing 1.4% above the 2025 summer season (+1,920 guest nights on over 142K guest nights on the books). Currently, Breckenridge has approximately 101% of last summer’s actual guest nights on the books.

A monthly snapshot of summer season guest nights on the books:

October 1-31 is represented below. Guest nights on the books are +6.2% year over year (YOY) (+881 GN YOY) and +5.3% to 2 years ago (2YA) (+767 GN 2YA).

Group business is a key driver of October guest nights. Fantastic fall weather is not hurting either. There are a few public schools with long weekends around October 15 and 16. A little less than 20% of U.S. schools have breaks during these dates. Texas schools have breaks during these dates as well as Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Illinois and California. The report indicates 25% of Texas schools have Oct 15 and 16 off.

Winter season guest nights on the books are -9.4% to last year (-6,841 GN 2025) and -8.8% to 2 years ago (-6,370 GN 2024). Key Data properties have 29% of last season’s winter guest nights on the books.

February and March are the bright spots in the season, right now. Early season is off to a slow start. December guest nights on the books are -13% YOY (-2,848 GN YOY). November is down 12% YOY (-1,186 GN YOY).

The appendix below has quotes from The Confidence Board and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Both indexes have declines in consumer sentiment. The good news is consumers place a high priority on travel and are sacrificing material purchases for travel experiences. As we experienced this summer, travelers are adjusting behaviors when traveling. One of the bigger adjustments expected this winter includes consumers changing the timing of travel. Consumers are looking for ways to save costs. A quick look at December nights and February nights on the graph above and we can see how travelers are adjusting the timing of travel.

Owner usage of their units is also changing. For the 26/27 winter season, Key Data reports owner nights on the books are up 25% to last season. On the same date in 2025, owner nights on the books were +19% YOY. On the same date in 2024, owner nights on the books were -5% YOY.

The Average Daily Rate (ADR) on the Key Data reports indicates a 6% decline YOY. Properties are booking rooms for $40 less than they were last season. Consumers are placing a high priority on the experience and want high value for those experiences. At 29% of historic actual guest nights on the books, we have time to make up ground. We need to make sure we take good care of our visitors to ensure the return and the referral, which makes the marketing dollars travel further.

The October 14, 2026, Key Data reports include 56 properties and 3,304 total units, 2,889 in town units of the 4,070 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.  

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^® fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 (1985=100) in September, down from 88.6 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—retreated by 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 5.9 points to 63.6, its third consecutive monthly decline. The survey period for this month’s preliminary results was September 1-23, which included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

“The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index fell sharply, while the Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024. Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory. Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.”

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu

Consumer sentiment was little changed this month, inching down a scant 1.8 index points from September. While year-ahead expectations for personal finances and business conditions crept up slightly, buying conditions for durables plummeted amid high prices and borrowing costs. Increases in sentiment among Democrats and Republicans were offset by a decline among independents this month. Overall, sentiment for lower-income consumers and those with smaller stock portfolios dropped steeply this month, groups that have fewer resources to weather increases in prices. Frustration over cost-of-living continues to mount, as consumers across the political spectrum believe that the trajectory of the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up from 4.6% last month to 4.7% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings. Long-run inflation expectations also stepped up from 3.4% in September to 3.5%, notably higher than their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%. Inflation expectations over both time horizons increased for the second straight month to their highest readings since May.