Occupancy Forecast

Breckenridge summer season (May 1 to Oct 31) guest nights on the books (OTB) indicate we are pacing 2% below the 2025 summer season. Since March 29, 2026, guest nights on the books have taken weekly bounces from -3.5% year over year (YOY) to -5.4% YOY to -2.4% YOY to the current -2% YOY. Currently, Breckenridge has approximately 30% of last summer’s actual guest nights on the books. We are just getting started. Multiple consumer research organizations report the American consumer has a high desire to travel. Travelers will make travel a priority and are planning to adjust their spending behaviors. The sky is not falling.

A monthly snapshot of guest nights on the books:

 2026 Variance to 2025   |   % of 2025 Actual Nights OTB

May                         -9.3% YOY                               58%

June                        -15.4% YOY                             44% (June 2025 had CML Group)

July                          +4.9% YOY                               35%

August                    +9.2% YOY                               24%

September              -6.8% YOY                               16%

October                   +62% YOY                                8%

The graph below looks at the summer season at a weekly level with summer 2026 and 2025 guest nights on the books, plus 2025 actual guest nights.

The graph below looks at May and June guest nights on the books as of April 26 with last year’s actual guest nights. During this period, guest nights OTB are -15% YOY. Approximately 47% of last year’s actual guest nights are on the books.  June 2025 included the Colorado Municipal League (CML), which books about 3,000 nights over a period of 5 nights in late June. This group has been coming to town for many events and will return in 2029 and 2031.

July and August are graphed below. Guest nights are +8% YOY and we have 30% of last year’s actual guest nights on the books. July guest nights are +5% YOY and August nights are +9% YOY. The second graph zooms in on the Thursday to Sunday nights of the 4^th of July weekend. Guest nights are +6% YOY with 37% of last year’s actual guest nights on the books.

The last graph is comparing Oktoberfest weekend (Thurs – Sun.) 2025 vs 2026.

• September 24-27, 2026 vs September 11-14, 2025

When you look at guest nights on the books for the summer season, Breckenridge has around 850 fewer guest nights on the books than last year. As we know, we can gain or lose ground quickly in a “normal” year. The American consumer’s priority for travel is high with no shortage of challenges impacting their ability to travel, let alone change behaviors during their travel.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was 47.6 in April vs 53.3 in March. Conversely, the Confidence Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged up 0.6 points to 92.8, remaining below the 100-point+ confidence line desired for a favorable economy. Gas prices, Inflation and sentiments on future economic growth future are primary concerns of the consumers.

A recently released Longwoods International study of American Travel Sentiment stated 35% of respondent would spend less money on recreation and entertainment. Sentiments were 33% would spend less on retail purchases and 29% would spend less on food & beverage. The vacation dollar is under pressure before, during and after arrival. Thankfully, the US consumer has a high desire and priority for travel.

The April 26, 2026, Key Data reports include 52 properties and 3,111 total units, 2,743 in town units of the 4,132 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.