Occupancy Forecast

The graph below outlines three years of guest nights on the books for the nights of September 1 to Oct 31. Guest nights on the books are -10.8% year over year (YOY) and down 9.7% to 2 years ago (2YA).

The Oktoberfest nights of Sept 11 – 14 were +2.8% YOY and +0.5% to 2YA. September nights on the books are -18% YOY and -25% to 2YA. Demand for October was solid during the Sept 8 to 21 booking period. Guest nights filled for October stays exceeded last year by 22% and outpaced 2023 by 4%. October guest nights on the books are -4% to each of the past two years. Oct 11-14 could offer a small bump in visitation as 56% of schools have a mini break on these dates.

Guest nights on the books for the summer season are -13.1% to 2024 and -15.1% to 2023.

• Average Daily Rate (ADR) $243 per night vs. $237 LY (+2% YOY)
• Average Length of Stay is 3.2 nights, flat YOY
• Revenue (Lodging) $31,922,493, -11% YOY
• Available nights: 445,931, -6% YOY

Winter Season 2025/26 guest nights on the books are – 3% to each of the past two years. November and December are pacing ahead of last year. January through April are all down YOY.

At this time, approximately 23% of Historic Actual guest nights are on the books for the winter season.

• Average Daily Rate (ADR) $625 per night vs. $584 LY (+7% YOY)
  • As the season progresses, ADR will decrease
• Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) $71, +10% YOY
  • As the season progresses, RevPAR will rise
• Average Length of Stay is 5.2 nights, -2% YOY
• Revenue (Lodging) $34,175,051, -11% YOY
• Available nights: 483,411, -6% YOY

The graph below outlines the 2025/26 winter season by weeks. It compares 2025/26 Guest nights OTB vs. 2024/25 OTB and 2024/25 ACTUAL Guest nights. Bright spots in the season are Thanksgiving, a little pre-Christmas and late March heading into Easter on April 5, 2026.

Texas Spring break season is March 7 to March 23, 2026. March 6 to 12 will be softer than last year. March 17 to 23 will be stronger than last year. Florida spring break will be strongest March 13 to 23.

Last week The FED reduced the prime by 0.25%. August consumer confidence fell 1.3 points to 97.4. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell to 55.4 from 58.2 the prior month and 70.1 one year ago. Uncertainty is the primary consumer sentiment with inflation, labor markets, cost of food the key drivers.

The September 24, 2025 Key Data reports include 57 properties and 3,102 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.