Occupancy Forecast

The graph below compares three seasons of guest nights on the books for the nights of January 5 to March 2, 2026. Guest nights on the books are -11% year over year (YOY) and -13.7% to 2 years ago (2YA).

Breckenridge has approximately 87% of 2025 actual guest nights on the books for these dates. Last year, Breckenridge had 98% of 2025 actual guest nights on the books. The graph below compares 2026 nights OTB vs. 2025 nights OTB and 2025 actual nights on the books.

President’s Weekend (February 12 to Feb 16) has 10% fewer guest nights on the books than 2025 and 2024. Breckenridge has booked approximately 87% of last year’s actual guest nights. Last year, on this date, Breckenridge had 97% of 2025 actual nights on the books. The graph below has 2 years of guest nights on the books plus last year’s actual guest nights on the books.

The graph below has 3 years of President’s Weekend guest nights on the books as of Feb. 8. Guest nights on the books are -13.4% YOY and -10.3% to 2YA

• Thursday, Feb 12, 2026: -19% YOY and -21% to 2YA
• Friday, February 13, 2026: -12.4% YOY and -13.2% to 2YA
• Saturday, February 14, 2026: -5.2% YOY and -7.5% to 2YA
• Sunday, February 15, 2026: -5.3% YOY and -4% to 2YA
• Monday, February 16, 2026: -6.6% YOY and flat to 2YA

Good news, when looking at YOY % of Variance, Breckenridge’s numbers for President’s Weekend have improved since the January 14 and Jan. 28 reports.

March 3 to April 12, 2026, has 3.1% fewer guest nights on the books than last year. For these dates, Breckenridge has approximately 62% of historic actual guest nights on the books. Guest nights on the books are -3.2% to 2YA (not on graph).

The graph below has 3 years of guest nights on the books for March 3 to April 12.

Key Nights

• Saturday, March 7, 2026: First Texas Spring Break Saturday: +0.7% YOY and -18.4% to 2YA
• Saturday, March 14, 2026: -3.9% YOY and +32% to 2YA
• Saturday, March 21, 2026: -14.5% YOY and -17.2% to 2YA
• Saturday, March 28, 2026: +16.6% YOY and -16.7% to 2YA
• Saturday, April 4, 2026: +29.7% YOY and +64% to 2YA
• Easter is April 5, 2026: +24% YOY and +116% to 2YA

Last week’s booking numbers were less than positive. Last week, Key Data properties filled 9% fewer winter season guest nights to the books when compared to last year and 29% fewer than 2 years ago.

Summer season (May to October) guest nights on the books are now -1% YOY. Three weeks ago, week, summer season guest nights on the books were +5% YOY. Three summer seasons of guest nights on the books as of Feb. 8 are on the graph below.

The week including July 4 has 4% more guest nights on the books than last year (was +8% on Jan 28, 2026).  At this time, Breckenridge has 11% of historic, actual summer season guest nights on the books.

The January 27, 2026 Confidence Board report indicates consumer confidence fell by 9.7 points in January 2026 to 84.5. The February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report score was 57.3, up .7 points from January’s 56.4 score. The DOW Jones Industrial Average was up 20 points, pacing at 50,135. A K-shaped economy, questionable consumer confidence, delayed jobs reports, all keep the middle class uncertain for the future. Thankfully their desire and priority for travel remains very high.

The February 10, 2026, Key Data reports include 67 properties and 3,123 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.