Occupancy Forecast

Last week, Nov 18 to 24, Key Data properties added 78% more guest nights into November than were added during the same week last year. For three weeks in a row, Breckenridge properties added more nights into November than were added the previous year. Below we have two looks at the same dates, Nov 20 to Dec 1, 2024. Two years of Thanksgiving Weekends, plus some nights. Thanksgiving was a week earlier in 2023.

Guest nights on the books are +14% to 2023 on the same day, and +9% to 2023 actual guest nights. The Key Data report for Summit County (6,273 Units), indicates a consistent pattern of increase in YOY guest nights on the books. Mountain Market C (4 CO. Towns + Park City), indicates a 3% decrease in guest nights.

Thanksgiving 2024 (Wed to Sat Nights) has 5% fewer guest nights on the books than 2023. Thanksgiving 2024 has a couple of more days to book and close the gap.

The graph below indicates pure occupancy (paid + owner/comp nights). When reading this chart bear in mind, the number of available units is down 6% year over year (YOY).

Below: Dec. 1, ‘24 to Jan. 19, ‘25, Christmas, New Years and MLK weekend in one chart.

Guest nights on the books are +4% YOY, with 69% of 2023/24 actual nights on the books at this time.
Below is a closer look at the nights of December 20, 2024 to January 12, 2025. Guest nights on the books are +11% YOY with 71% of 2023/24 actual guest nights on the books.

Notice New Year’s Eve and New Year’s night currently have the highest demand. The bump over Dec. 21 to 23 outweigh the drop over Dec. 25 to 27.

The graph below compares 3 years of holiday season guest nights on the books as of Nov 24. Holiday Season 2024/25 has 18% more guest nights on the books than in 2022/23. The average daily rate for nights on the books is down$37 per night or -6% YOY. The average length of stay (LOS) is down .2 nights. Properties are booking more reservations for fewer nights at a lower rate.

The Last chart we have includes the nights of January 13 to March 31, 2025.

• Guest nights on the books are +19% YOY.
• Breckenridge has 46% of 2024 actual guest nights on the books.
• The Average Daily Rate (ADR) is down 9% (-$54) during this period.
• The Average Length of Stay (LOS) is down 1.5 nights.
• Current pace has the LOS down .5 nights to last year’s actual LOS.
• Historically, it is rare the Ave LOS increases as the booking season progresses.

The November 24, 2024 Key Data reports include 52 properties and 3,236 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.