Occupancy Forecast

The graph below compares three seasons of guest nights on the books (OTB) for the nights of January 5 to March 2, 2026. Guest nights on the books are -11.5% year over year (YOY) and -12.8% to 2 years ago (2YA).

Breckenridge has approximately 83% of 2025 actual guest nights on the books for these dates. Last year, Breckenridge had 94% of 2025 actual guest nights on the books. The graph below compares 2026 nights OTB vs. 2025 nights OTB and 2025 actual nights on the books.

President’s Weekend (February 12 to Feb 16) has 13.4% fewer guest nights on the books than 2025. Breckenridge has booked approximately 79% of last year’s actual guest nights. Last year, on this date, Breckenridge had 94% of 2025 actual nights on the books. The graph below has 2 years of guest nights on the books plus last year’s actual guest nights on the books.

The graph below has 3 years of President’s Weekend guest nights on the books as of Jan 25. Guest nights on the books are -13.4% YOY and -10.3% to 2YA

• Thursday, Feb 12, 2026: -22.7% YOY and -22% to 2YA
• Friday, February 13, 2026: -16.8% YOY and -15.6% to 2YA
• Saturday, February 14, 2026: -9.6% YOY and 2YA
• Sunday, February 15, 2026: -9.8% YOY and -5.2% to 2YA
• Monday, February 16, 2026: -7.6% YOY and ++3.5% to 2YA

When looking at YOY % of Variance, the Breckenridge numbers for President’s weekend have improved since the January 14 report.

March 3 to April 12, 2026 has 2.9% fewer guest nights on the books than last year. Breckenridge has approximately 54% of historic actual guest nights on the books. Guest nights on the books are -1% to 2YA.

The graph below has 3 years of guest nights on the books for March 3 to April 12.

Some Key Nights

• Saturday, March 7, 2026: First Texas Spring Break Saturday: -1.2% YOY and -16.6% to 2YA
• Saturday, March 14, 2026: -5.9% YOY and +40% to 2YA
• Saturday, March 21, 2026: -13.7% YOY and -16.6% to 2YA
• Saturday, March 28, 2026: +14.2% YOY and -17.5% to 2YA
• Saturday, April 4, 2026: +36.9% YOY and +65% to 2YA
• Easter is April 5, 2026: +31% YOY and +120% to 2YA

Last week’s booking numbers were less than positive. Last week, Key Data properties filled 28% fewer winter season guest nights to the books when compared to last year and 33% fewer than 2 years ago.

Summer season (May to October) guest nights on the books are now flat YOY. Last week, Summer season guest nights on the books were +5% YOY. Three summer seasons of guest nights on the books as of Jan 25 are on the graph below.

The week including July 4 has 8% more guest nights on the books than last year. Breckenridge has less than 10% of historic, actual summer season guest nights on the books at this time.

The January 26, 2026, Key Data reports include 68 properties and 3,138 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.