Occupancy Forecast

This Key Data report includes 55 properties and 3,279 units. Our first graph looks at a 3-year comparison of guest nights on the books during March 6 to April 30, as of March 16. Guest nights on the books are -2.2% year over year (YOY) and +6.7% to 2 years ago (2YA).

Easter is April 20, 2025 vs. March 31, 2024 and April 9, 2023. If you look at March 22 to April 2, despite the changes in Easter dates, each year’s demand patterns are similar; the volume is not as strong. During the March 3 to March 16 booking window, Key data properties added 33% more nights into March than they added in 2024. During the same period, Key Data properties added 23% fewer nights into April. The booking window is shorter and consumers have responded when snow falls.

The graph below also looks at the nights of March 6 to April 30 2025, and compares 2025 guest nights on the books to 2024 guest nights on the books as of March 16 and 2024 actual guest nights on the books. Breckenridge has approximately 86% of 2024 actual guest nights on the books at this time.

It is worth noting that during the March 24 to April 5 dates; there are between 6% and 43% fewer schools on break this year vs. last year. The largest variance occurring March 28 to 30. Once April 7 to April 28 hits, more schools are on break in 2025 than in 2024 by similar numbers and the largest variance in schools on break occurs April 17 to 20.

For the 2024/25 winter season (November 1 to April 30), Key Data properties have 6% fewer guest nights on the books than last season and 2% fewer guest nights than the 2022/23 winter season.

March guest nights on the books are -4% to last season. April guest nights on the books are -1% to last season. For the season, Key Data properties are averaging $17 less per night than last season (ADR is -3% YOY). Winter season owner nights on the books are +4% YOY.

The March 19, 2025 Key Data reports include 55 properties and 3,279 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.