Occupancy Forecast

A quick update as we head into the President’s weekend. Guest nights on the books during Feb 10 to Feb 28, 2025 are down 5.8% to last year.

Breckenridge has approximately 95% of historic actual guest nights on the books. Below is 2025 and 2024 on the books as of Feb 10, plus the yellow line is 2024 actual guest nights.

If we look at the Thursday thru Monday nights of President’s weekend (see chart below), guest nights on the books are -6.3% to 2024. Breckenridge has 97% of historic, actual guest nights on the books at this time. We will see if this week’s snow fills more last minute nights than last year. For the first ten days of February 2025, last minute fill of rooms for February is pacing slightly behind last year.

The last look is March 1 to April 30, 2025. Guest nights on the books are -0.8% to last year and +3.6% to 2 years ago.

Breckenridge has approximately 62% of historic, actual guest nights on the books at this time. The chart below compares 2025 on the books (blue line) to 2024 on the books (red line) and 2024 actual guest nights (yellow line). Notice the dramatic shifts in arrival patterns and the mount of spring break fill that occurred last year (gap between red and yellow lines).

Repeated from last week’s notes: Inntopia’s graph of University and Public school break dates. The significant differences in year over year dates are causing shifts in the peak periods.

The February 10, 2025 Key Data reports include 56 properties and 2,635 of approximately 4,199 licensed short- term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.