Occupancy Forecast

December 20 to January 12 is on the chart below, which compares this season to the past two seasons. Guest nights (Paid Nights) “on the books” (OTB) are pacing +0.5% year over year (YOY) and +9% to 2 years ago (2YA). January 1 is PEAK night, followed by New Year’s Eve. There is inventory available to sell. For these dates, Breckenridge had 87% of Historic Actual guest nights on the books at this time. During this period, Owner nights (not pictured) are +7% to each of the past two years.

the average daily rate (ADR) is down $27 or -3.4% to last year. Lodging revenue on the books is down 3.2%. The average length of stay is down 0.1 nights. Properties are booking more guests, for shorter stays, at lower rates to meet or exceed last year’s Holiday season numbers.
The dates of January 13 to April 30 are outlined in the two graphs below. During this period, Guest nights on the books are +12% to 2024 and +11% to 2YA. The first graph compares 2025 and 2024 on the books as of Dec 17 and actual 2024 Guest nights. The second graph compares 3 years of on the books as of Dec. 17. Breckenridge has approximately 54% of 2024 actual guest nights on the books at this time.

Winter Season (Nov. 1 to April 30) Guest Nights (paid nights) on the books are pacing 2% above 2023/24 guest nights on the books (as of Dec. 17). Guest nights are +6% to Winter 2022/23. Breckenridge has approximately 60% of 2024 actual guest nights on the books at this time.

Over the past couple of weeks, the pace of new bookings has struggled to match or exceed the past two years. We will be keeping a close eye on the pace of bookings.
The one positive twist of the Holiday and Winter season is; with shorter lengths of stay this season and Breckenridge exceeding or meeting prior year guest nights on the books, there will be more “parties” of travelers to capture revenue from.

The December 17, 2024 Key Data reports include 55 properties and 3,295 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.