Occupancy Forecast

Breckenridge summer season (May 1 to Oct 31) guest nights on the books indicate we are pacing 2.2% above the 2025 summer season (+2,452 guest nights on over 116.4K guest nights on the books). Currently, Breckenridge has approximately 86% of last summer’s actual guest nights on the books. A monthly snapshot of guest nights on the books as of August 16, 2026:

The nights August 7 to September 30 are represented on the graph below. Guest nights on the books as of August 16 are up 4.6% year over year and -4.2% to 2 years ago. The average daily rate is down $3 to 2025 and 2024 dates.

The Breckenridge International Festival of Arts begins on August 20 and ends on August 23. The Colorado Governor’s Conference on Tourism is in town September 23-25. Remember, Oktoberfest is 2 weeks later this year, September 25-27. Labor Day is also one week later in 2026.

Below is a 3-year comparison of guest nights on the books for the Labor Day weekend. Because Labor Day is a week later in 2026, the graph looks at a 12-night period.

Guest nights on the books are +6.4% to 2025 (+400 GN) and -1.5% to 2024 (-99 GN). During the August 3 to 16 booking period, Key Data properties added 1,149 more guest nights into September than what was booked the prior year. The Governor’s Conference being a driver of nights as well as positive demand from individual travelers. I expect last-minute demand to exceed last year.

The Thursday through Sunday nights of Oktoberfest is represented below. Oktoberfest is two weeks later in 2026, and the graph compares the event nights, not the date of the month. Keep in mind the Governor’s Conference on Tourism closes on Friday and is influencing Thursday night growth over last year.

Guest nights on the books for Saturday night of Oktoberfest are 6.2% below Saturday 2025 (-66 GN) and 12% above Saturday 2024 (+113 GN). Friday guest nights on the books are -18% YOY (-182 GN). Oktoberfest is two weeks later in September, giving lodgers two additional weeks to add nights to an inherently lower base of nights that occur every September. I expect lodgers to close the Friday and Saturday night gaps as we approach the event.

October 2026 guest nights on the books are pacing 33% more than last year with 34% of Last year’s actual guest nights on the books. Group business levels in town account for the two blue line bumps in the graph.

We hope for a “Second Summer” to boost late September and October nights. At the same time, we need early snow to boost the winter season.

The 2026/27 winter season has 13% of last year’s actual guest nights on the books. Guest nights on the books are -5.6% to last year (-1,640 GN) and -11.6% to 2 years ago. (-3,602 GN).

Today’s Key Data reports include 54 properties and 3,063 units, of which 2,705 units are located inside Breckenridge town limits. As of July 2026, Breckenridge had 4,070 licensed units in town. The data is based on business levels on Key Data as of August 16, 2026.