Occupancy Forecast

This Key Data report includes 53 properties and 2,649 units. The first graph looks at a 3-year comparison of guest nights on the books as of March 31, for the nights of March 23 to April 30. Guest nights on the books are -7.4% year over year (YOY) and +9.3% to 2 years ago (2YA).

Easter is April 20, 2025 vs. March 31, 2024 and April 9, 2023. On this date in 2024, Key Data properties had 89% of historic actual guest nights on the books.

On the chart above, the gap between the red line and yellow lines indicates the amount of guest nights filled during April ’24 for arrival in April ’24. During March 2025, Key Data properties filled 14% fewer guest nights into March and April, then were filled during March 2024.

March 2025 guest nights on the books ended 11% less than March 2024. April 2025 Guest nights on the books are +1.4% to April 2024. April Guest Nights filled during March 2025 were 20% less than the number of guest nights added during March 2024 for arrival in April 2024. We need a snowy April to make up some late ground.

Summer 2025 guest nights on the books trail Summer 2024 by 19%. July 2025 guest nights on the books are 25% below July 2024. August has 18% fewer nights, with June 19% less than 2024.

Breckenridge has approximately 25% of historic, actual summer guest nights on the books at this time.

The Consumer Confidence index fell by 7.2 points in March, the fourth consecutive month of declines. The University Of Michigan, Index of Consumer Sentiment, dropped 11.9% from February 2025, and is 28% less than on March 2024. The CU Leeds School of Business Confidence Index fell from 50 for Q1 2025 to 31.9 for Q2 2025. Government Administration, Tariffs and employment levels top lists of reasons sentiment indexes are dropping. Buckle up, summer is looking to be an interesting ride.

The March 31, 2025 Key Data reports include 53 properties and 2,649 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.