Occupancy Forecast

The nights of March 8 to April 30 are represented on the graphs below. Guest nights on the books are -14% to last year and 2 years ago (2YA). Breckenridge has 79% of last year’s actual nights on the books during these dates. Easter is April 5, 2026.

April 2026 guest nights on the books are -29% to each of the past two years! March guest nights on the books are currently -14% to each of the past two years. Winter season guest nights on the books are -10% to last year. Revenue is also -10% year over year (YOY).

Summer season guest nights on the books are currently pacing -3.5% to Summer 2025 and -27% to Summer 2024. Breckenridge has 21% of Summer 2025 actual guest nights on the books.

June 2026 guest nights on the books are -23% to last year with 30% of last year’s actuals on the books at this time. June 2026 will be an uphill battle as June 2025 included the Colorado Municipal League, which was over 3,000 Monday to Thursday guest nights in mid to late June.

• July guest nights on the books are +5.6% year over year (YOY)
• August guest nights are +7.4% YOY
• September guest nights are +3.2% YOY
• July Guest nights on the books gained ground to 2025 in the past 2 weeks. August and September lost ground over the past two weeks. June neither gained nor lost ground.

The March 31 consumer confidence index from the Conference board indicates consumer confidence improved in March by 0.8 points and stands at 91.8. Sentiments for current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in future expectations. The University of Michigan Index (March 27, 2026) was 53.3, down from 56.6 in February 2026 and 57.0 in March 2025. The UM Index of Consumer Expectations was also down 5 points from February. The Center for Economic and Policy Research reports an overall trend of a gradual weaking, not a sudden collapse. The Healthcare industry is a growth driver while manufacturing continues to lose jobs. Restaurant jobs are expected to decline as consumer spending falls. Wage growth is slowing and may edge slower. Thankfully, the US consumer has a high desire and priority for travel.

The March 31, 2026, Key Data reports include 53 properties and 3,126 total units, 2,745 in town units of the 4,132 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.