Occupancy Forecast

The graph below compares two seasons of guest nights on the books for the nights of December 1, 2025, to January 20, 2026, PLUS last season’s actual guest nights (Yellow line). During this period, guest nights on the books are +1.3% year over year (YOY) with 83% of historical actual guest nights on books. The YOY variance remained flat to the November 30, 2025 notes.

Last week, Key Data properties added 11,363 guest nights into the winter season. This was 26 more guest nights than were added during the same week last year. This was a win considering the seasonal pace was -6% YOY. Looking back, Saturday, Dec. 6 guest nights on the books closed -11% YOY, Friday the 5th was -5% YOY.

Notice the dates of Dec. 14 to Dec. 23 and the sizeable increases in nights on the books over last year. Look for a significant number of college kids in town Dec. 12 – 22, 2025.

• December 18 has 35% more guest nights on the books than last year, AND 18% more guest nights than last year’s ACTUAL guest nights.
• The post-Christmas nights need some help. December 27 is now -6% YOY vs. -8% YOY we reported on Nov. 30, 2025.
• New Years Eve is now -1.7% YOY vs -1.2% YOY last week.
• Martin Luther King weekend has held ground with 6% more nights on the books on Saturday, January 17, 2026.
• Expect a significant number of college kids in town January 5 – 12.

Below we zoom in on the nights of Dec. 19, 2025, to January 4, 2026. Currently, guest nights on the books are +2.6% YOY with 88% of last year’s ACTUAL guest nights on the books.

For those who want to see occupancy % vs. guest nights, below is a graph of pure occupancy for Dec 19 to Jan. 4 (paid nights + owner nights divided by available nights). Pure occupancy is +4.6% YOY, paid occupancy is +5.4% YOY.

January 21 to March 2, 2026, has 11.4% fewer guest nights on the books compared to last year. Breckenridge gained 1.2 points of YOY variance over the last 7 days. Currently, 50% of historic, actual guest nights are on the books.

February has 15% fewer guest nights on the books compared to last year. Shifts in group nights during February are the key reason for the decline. Breckenridge properties gained 1 point of variance last week. Saturday, February 14 of President’s weekend has 19% fewer guest nights on the books compared to last year. Feb. 17, 2026. is Fat Tuesday.
Easter Sunday is April 5, 2026, vs. April 20, 2025. This shift has impacts on March and early April Spring break periods. Texas spring breaks are broken into two weeks with the peak overlap night of the two break periods being Saturday, March 14, 2026. I will repeat this message for a few more weeks.
March Guest nights on the books are -14% year over year (YOY). April has 8% fewer guest nights on the books YOY. The graph below of March 3 to April 12 has 2.5% fewer guest nights on the books. Approximately 32% of historic, actual guest nights are on the books currently. Breckenridge properties gained 1 point of YOY variance last week.

Guest nights on the books for the Winter Season, which includes, November 1, 2025, to April 30,2026, are -5.7% to last year and -8.1% to 2 years ago (2YA).

The December 7, 2025, Key Data reports include 63 properties and 3,180 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.