Occupancy Forecast

December 20, 2024 to January 12, 2025 is on the chart below, which compares this season to the past two seasons. Guest nights (paid nights) “on the books” (OTB) paced -4.2% year over year (YOY) and +1% to 2 years ago (2YA).

The Average Daily Rate (ADR) was down $9 or 1.3% YOY. Lodging revenue was down 5.4% YOY. Owner nights were +8% YOY.

Winter Season (Nov. 1, 2024 to April 30, 2025), guest nights on the books are now -2% YOY.

Guest nights on the books are +1% to 2 years ago (2YA). Lodging Revenue on the books during this period is -6% YOY. Owner nights on the books are +6% YOY. Breckenridge has 75% of historic actual nights on the books.

January Guest nights on the books are -6% to last year. February Guest nights are +2% YOY. Guest nights on the books for Jan 1 to Feb 28 (chart below) are +1% to each of the past two years.

Notice the “occupied” pattern is consistent over the three years. Below we have 2025 (Blue line) vs 2024 OTB (red line) and 2024 Actual (yellow line).

March 1 to April 30, 2025 Guest nights on the books are pacing 12% more than in 2024. Breckenridge has approximately 50% of Historic actual nights on the books. We have significant difference in arrival patterns in 2025. Easter is on April 20, 2025. Notice the peak forming on March 15 and 16. Texas public school spring breaks occur over two weeks and March 15 is the Saturday of the end of the first week and the beginning of the second. Some public school districts have extended dates off around Easter, boosting April, which has 13% more guest nights on the books YOY. March 2025 has 8% more guest nights on the books YOY.

Bookings made in January 2025 are pacing similar to 2024. We continue to see shorter lengths of stay being booked. Lower ADR numbers are affecting revenue. Lodgers have to book more reservations to match last year’s room night totals. The good news is, with more reservations, we have more parties providing opportunities for revenue on Main Street Breckenridge.

Summit County numbers have consistent patterns with Breckenridge. Expect more business from other parts of Summit County, let alone the Day visitor we want to turn into an overnight visitor.

The January 12, 2025 Key Data reports include 55 properties and 3,275 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.