Occupancy Forecast

Breckenridge summer season (May 1 to Oct 31) guest nights on the books (OTB) indicate we are pacing 1% above the 2025 summer season (+1,051 guest nights on over 89K guest nights on the books). Currently, Breckenridge has approximately 66% of last summer’s actual guest nights on the books.

A monthly snapshot of guest nights on the books as of July 7, 2026:

2026 variance to 2025 % of 2025 actual nights OTB
May +0.1% YOY 100%
June -4.5% YOY 95% (June 2025 had CML Group)
July +6.5% YOY 91%
August -5.8% YOY 50%
September +3.9% YOY 34%
October +40% YOY 18%

July 2026 has approximately 91% of last year’s actual nights on the books and is currently pacing +6.5% to last year. Three years of July guest nights on the books (OTB) are represented below.

Please note, the Colorado Association of School Executives (CASE) are in town one week later in 2026.

August 1 – 31 is represented on the graph below. August has approximately 50% of 2025 actual guest nights on the books. Guest nights on the books are -5.8% year over year (YOY).

Summary of the public-school break calendar, and when they return to session:

There is a small benefit of more schools on break later into August this year, but not by much.

September guest nights on the books are pacing 3% to 5% more guest nights on the books year over year. A couple of date changes in September are making the graphs look more inconsistent than what we have experienced in the past. Labor Day is a week later in 2026 vs. 2025. Oktoberfest is Sept. 25 – 27 vs. the Sept. 11-13 range in past years. September has 34% of last year’s actual guest nights on the books.

Oktoberfest 2026 is September 25, 26, & 27. This is two weeks later than the past few years. The graph below looks at guest nights on the books for the past three Oktoberfest weekends. Two weeks ago, Saturday night was on par with history, Thursday and Friday nights needed the pace to pick up. Today, all nights need an increase in pace.

Guest nights on the books are -14% YOY and -4% to 2YA. September has 34% of last year’s actual guest nights on the books. I would estimate Oktoberfest has 30% or less of last year’s actual nights on the books.

October 2026 guest nights on the books are pacing 40% more than last year with 18% of Last year’s actual guest nights on the books. The 40% increase has been a solid number since June 1 when it dropped from a 50% increase in May.

Summer season owner nights on the books are pacing 4% above Summer 2025 (+2.4k owner nights). Given the YOY increase in guest nights and the YOY increase in owner nights, Summer 2026 business levels will outpace Summer 2025. Pray for rain in Colorado. Summit County Key Data properties have 2,400 more guest nights on the books than last year (+2% YOY). Summit County owner nights are also up 2% YOY. Expect more day visitation from throughout Summit County lodging.

The June 30 Consumer Confidence index was 91.2, up 0.6 points since May. “Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June was 49.5 vs. 44.8 in May 2026 and 60.7 in June 2025. Month over month increases in both indexes is obviously positive. However, both indexes are well below the desired levels indicating consumer confidence is strong.

Today’s Key Data reports include 50 properties and 3,060 units, of which 2,701 units are located inside Breckenridge town limits. As of December 2025, Breckenridge had 4,132 licensed units in town. The data is based on business levels on Key data as of July 7, 2026.