Occupancy Forecast

The graph below outlines two seasons of guest nights on the books for the nights of December 1, 2025, to January 20, 2026, plus last seasons actual guest nights (yellow line). During this period, guest nights on the books are +1.3% year over year (YOY) with 64% of historical actual guest nights on books.

Notice the dates of Dec. 17 to Dec. 23 and the sizeable increases in nights over last year. Look for a significant number of college kids in town during these dates.

• December 19 has 30% more guest nights on the books than last year.
• The post-Christmas nights need some help. December 27 has 8% FEWER guest nights on the books compared to last year.
• New Years Eve is -1.2% YOY.
• Martin Luther King weekend is showing promise with 6% more nights on the books on Saturday, January 17, 2026.
• Expect a significant number of college kids in town January 5 to 12.

January 21 to March 2, 2026, has 12.6% fewer guest nights on the books compared to last year. Currently, approximately 45% of historic, actual guest nights are on the books.

February has 16% fewer guest nights on the books compared to last year. Shifts in group nights during February are the key reason for the decline. Saturday, February 14 of President’s weekend has 21% fewer guest nights on the books compared to last year. Fat Tuesday is Feb. 17, 2026.

Easter Sunday is April 5, 2026, vs. April 20, 2025. This shift has impacts on March and early April Spring break periods. Texas spring breaks are broken into two weeks with the peak overlap night of the two break periods being Saturday, March 14, 2026.

March Guest nights on the books are -14% year over year (YOY). April has 7% fewer guest nights on the books YOY. The graph below of March 3 to April 12 has 3.5% fewer guest nights on the books. Approximately 29% of historic, actual guest nights are on the books currently. The pattern of arrivals and the performance levels are consistent across multiple destinations in the Mountain West.

Guest nights on the books for the Winter Season, November 1, 2025, to April 30,2026, are -6% to last year and -8% to 2 years ago (2YA). According to our Key Data reports, Vail, Aspen, Steamboat, Telluride, and Summit County all have guest night deficits to last year.

The November 30, 2025, Key Data reports include 63 properties and 3,173 of approximately 4,199 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.