Occupancy Forecast

Breckenridge summer season (May 1 to Oct 31) guest nights on the books indicate we are pacing 2.5% above the 2025 summer season (+3,105 guest nights on over 128.5K guest nights on the books). Currently, Breckenridge has approximately 95% of last summer’s actual guest nights on the books.

A Monthly snapshot of guest nights on the books as of August 30, 2026:

The Labor Day weekend experienced solid last-minute pick up. We have been tracking a 12-day Labor Day weekend comparison to the past two years, when Labor Day was one week earlier. On August 30, Guest nights on the books for the 12-day period were flat to last year and down 7% to 2 years ago. On September 13, Breckenridge guest nights on the books are +6.5% year over year and -3.6% to 2 years ago.

The Governor’s Conference on Tourism is in Breckenridge September 23 to September 25. This group includes competitor’s and colleagues who will spend time and money in town. Virtually every destination in Colorado will be comparing their experience to Breckenridge.

Monday, September 21 through Friday, September 25 nights including the conference are represented below. Over these 5 nights, Key Data properties have over 1,740 more nights on the books than last year. Thursday night has over 455 more guest nights on the books than last year.

Oktoberfest is September 25 to September 27 and is two weeks later than each of the past two years. Guest nights on the books are -5% year over year and +2% to 2024. Breckenridge has two weeks to close the gap to 2025. Last minute booking volume for Labor Day is encouraging as we add nights to Oktoberfest 2026.

A 3-year comparison of September guest nights on the books is represented below. This provides a broad view of how the three events are driving September business levels. September guest nights on the books are +20% to 2025 and +1% to 2024. September 2026 Guest nights on the books exceed September 2025 actual guest nights on the books.

October has 21% more guest nights on the books than last year and 15% more than two years ago. Strong group business is driving October year over year gains. Notice the two bumps in the middle of the month. Some schools have long weekend breaks in the middle of October. A little less than 20% of U.S. schools have breaks during these dates. However, Texas schools have breaks during these dates as well as Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Illinois and California to name a few. The report indicates 41% of Texas schools have October 9 off and 25% Texas schools have October 15 off.

Winter Season guest nights on the books are -8% to last year and -11% to two years ago. Key Data properties have 20% of last season’s winter guest nights on the books.

February and March guest nights on the books are currently pacing above 2025/26 pace. December and January are concerning. Christmas is slow to pick up and early December and January are being impacted by slow pick up of college groups we have been accustomed to hosting in the past.

Today’s Key Data reports include 54 properties and 3,042 units, of which 2,682 units are located inside Breckenridge town limits. As of July 2026, Breckenridge had 4,070 licensed units in town. The guest night data is based on business levels on Key Data as of September 13, 2026.