Occupancy Forecast

Breckenridge Summer Season (May 1 to Oct 31) guest nights on the books (OTB) indicate we are pacing 0.5% above the 2025 summer season (+345 guest nights). Currently, Breckenridge has approximately 46% of last summer’s actual guest nights on the books.

A monthly snapshot of guest nights on the books:

2026 Variance to 2025           % of 2025 Actual Nights OTB

May        -11.7% YOY                     88%

Jun        -3% YOY                          75% (June 2025 had CML Group)

Jul        +7.5% YOY                       58%

Aug       +1.2% YOY                      34%

Sep          -5.8% YOY                     22%

Oct          +42% YOY                      11%

Since the May 17th report, the year over year (YOY) variance in the number of guest nights on the books improved in June, July and September.  The May variance increased by 10 points in May, while August and October are basically flat.

June 2026 has approximately 75% of last year’s actual nights on the books and is currently pacing -3% to last year. June has experienced strong pickup since being down 12% YOY on May 17th.

The graph below shows the number of reservations made in June for arrival in 2024 & 2025. The blue column is 2025 arrival dates. In June 2025, 2,648 reservations were made with an approximate average length of stay of 4 nights.

This shows how much business is available to be booked in June for arrival in June. The later June weekends experienced the most demand. Roughly, 71% of the June business yet to be booked is added into the June 19 to 30 nights. Between 10K and 12K guest nights are expected to be added in June.

The graph below has July 2025 & 2026 guest nights on the books, plus July 2025 actual guest nights. Approximately 58% of July’s actual guest nights are on the books as of May 31st. July 2026 guest nights have yet to be added in June.

July 2025 and 2024 arrivals booked in June 2025 & June 2024 are graphed below. Roughly 50% of July arrivals booked in June will arrive in the first 11 days July.

The next set of graphs will dive into the 4th of July holiday. The graph below has guest nights on the books for July 1 to 7, 2026 & 2025 as of May 31st; Plus, last year’s actual guest nights. Guest nights on the books are +5% YOY with approximately 59% of last year’s actual nights on the books.

Breckenridge has 59% of last year’s actual night on the books. Guest nights on the books are +5% to last year.

The Conference Board reported on May 26 that consumer confidence dipped 0.7 points to 93.1. Other than coming out of COVID in 2020/2021, the numbers haven’t been this low since mid-2016. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is 44.8 in May, down from 49.8 in April 2026 and 52.2 in May of 2025.

Visitor expectations will be high and those who can match or exceed those expectations will benefit from repeat business.

The June 2, 2026, Key Data reports include 52 properties and 3,312 total units, 2,928 in town units of the 4,132 licensed short-term rentals in Breckenridge plus hotel properties. The data includes resorts, private homes, and hotels. Many of these units are on Rent by Owner (RBO) sites Airbnb and VRBO.